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Home Run Derby - 2019

 
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dodgerblue6



Joined: 10 Aug 2005
Posts: 17152
Location: San Diego CA - deep in the heart of SoCal

PostPosted: Fri 7/5/19 11:45 am    Post subject: Home Run Derby - 2019 Reply with quote

The 2019 "T-Mobile" Home Run Derby will take place next Monday at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the participants are listed here.

Admittedly, I've lost interest over the years, but for the record, Cody will not be participating this year, and Joc will. And it's great to see one of my favorite non-Dodgers, Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, in the mix, too.
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"The Dodgers have always occupied an enormous place in the history of the game. If the Yankees are the most successful team in baseball history, the Dodgers are the most essential. Their legacy is unique."

-Baseball Hall of Fame


Last edited by dodgerblue6 on Sat 7/6/19 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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dodgerblue6



Joined: 10 Aug 2005
Posts: 17152
Location: San Diego CA - deep in the heart of SoCal

PostPosted: Sat 7/6/19 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Milwaukee slugger Christian Yelich's practice swings yielded a broken car window outside PNC Park, prior to Friday's game between the Brewers and Pirates.

Also, the "curse" has been debunked--here's the data that proves that participation in the Home Run Derby is not a determining factor of a player's second-half performance!
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"The Dodgers have always occupied an enormous place in the history of the game. If the Yankees are the most successful team in baseball history, the Dodgers are the most essential. Their legacy is unique."

-Baseball Hall of Fame
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sunnyblue



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 2035
Location: San Diego County, CA

PostPosted: Sat 7/6/19 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think people just have their perceptions. I personally don't sit back and hope my favorite players stay out of the Derby.
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dodgerblue6



Joined: 10 Aug 2005
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Location: San Diego CA - deep in the heart of SoCal

PostPosted: Mon 7/8/19 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right, and it doesn't matter one way or another to me.

It's been announced that Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman is replacing Christian Yelich in the Derby. The Brewers slugger bowed out due to a back issue. As a teenager, Chapman attended the HR Derby in Anaheim way back in 2010 (remember that one, ladies?). Smile
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"The Dodgers have always occupied an enormous place in the history of the game. If the Yankees are the most successful team in baseball history, the Dodgers are the most essential. Their legacy is unique."

-Baseball Hall of Fame
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dodgerblue6



Joined: 10 Aug 2005
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Location: San Diego CA - deep in the heart of SoCal

PostPosted: Mon 7/8/19 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Youth rules! Mets rookie Pete Alonso has won the 2019 Home Run Derby at Progressive Field this evening. And another rookie put up a memorable fight in the final round--Blue Jays slugger Vlad Guerrero, Jr.

Congratulations to the kid! Alonso is also the only Mets player to win the derby outright.

From MLB.com:

Quote:
Alonso is donating 5% of his $1 million grand prize to the Wounded Warrior Project and another 5% to the Tunnel to Towers Foundation.

“I respect anyone who puts their life on the line every single day, going to work knowing that they may have to make the ultimate sacrifices," Alonso said. "There are people that are making sacrifices every single day abroad keeping us free and then there are people at home keeping us safe.”


Good show!
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"The Dodgers have always occupied an enormous place in the history of the game. If the Yankees are the most successful team in baseball history, the Dodgers are the most essential. Their legacy is unique."

-Baseball Hall of Fame
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sunnyblue



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
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PostPosted: Fri 7/12/19 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Congratulations to Alonso. Whoever the Dodgers send usually seems to flop.
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dodgerblue6



Joined: 10 Aug 2005
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Location: San Diego CA - deep in the heart of SoCal

PostPosted: Fri 7/12/19 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, and here's yet another article to refute the HR Derby second-half breakdown.

From the L.A. Times:

"Joc Pederson and the Home Run Derby Myth"

By HOUSTON MITCHELL
JUL 09, 2019 | 8:00 AM


I was hoping I wouldn’t have to write this again, but lo and behold, some Dodgers fans are freaking out that Joc Pederson took part in Monday’s Home Run Derby, saying the derby ruins the second half for players. It doesn’t. And the fact he did so well means his swing is ruined. It isn’t. So let’s go over it again.

There is no evidence at all to back this fear up, except for a generic “Look what happened to Joc Pederson in 2015!” Of course, the fact Pederson began slumping before the Home Run Derby that year is ignored.

Before the 2015 All-Star game, Pederson hit .230/.364/.487 with 20 homers and an OPS+ of 139. After the All-Star game he hit .178/.317/.300 with six homers and an OPS+ of 71. Problem solved, right? It was obviously the derby that did him in. But wait. Let's take a closer look.

In his last 20 games before the 2015 All-Star game, Pederson hit .159/.266/.304, which is even worse than what he did after the All-Star game. So, Pederson's slump started around mid-June, almost one month before the All-Star break even began.

How can we blame the home run derby for something that was already happening? We can't.

The entire Home Run Derby jinx is urban legend, with no facts to back it up. The biggest example most people use is Chris Davis, who hit 37 homers before the 2013 Home Run Derby and only 16 after. But do we really think Davis was going to hit 70 homers that season? His overall numbers were still excellent after the break, so saying it jinxed him is quite a reach.

Davis is no different from Reggie Jackson in 1969. He had 37 homers at the break. After the break, he hit 11. If that happened now, everyone would be screaming that the Home Run Derby had ruined him (though it would have been great to see Reggie in a Home Run Derby).

In 1969, Frank Howard had 34 homers at the break. He hit 14 after. No Home Run Derby to mess up his swing.

Also keep in mind that most players are selected to compete in the derby because they are having a monstrous first half. Mike Trout, the best player in baseball for the last six seasons, has a career OPS+ of 176, making him the active leader. (OPS+ compares hitters to the league average. An average hitter will have an OPS+ of 100. Trout's 174 means he is 76% better than the average hitter over the same time.) Only two active players have a career OPS+ of at least 150 and only 34 players in history have a career OPS+ of at least 150 (minimum 3,000 plate appearances). Trout, by the way, is fifth all time, behind Babe Ruth (206), Ted Williams (190), Barry Bonds (182) and Lou Gehrig (179).

But from 2012-18, 24 of the 58 Home Run Derby competitors had an OPS+ over 150 at the time. There was no place for them to go but down, and all but four did. Those four: David Wright in 2013 (from 151 to 154), Jose Bautista in 2014 (158-174), Giancarlo Stanton in 2014 (163-182) and Charlie Blackmon in 2017 (151-182). The other 20 didn't suffer from a jinx, they just regressed to normal, and all stayed well above average in OPS+.

Of the 58 home run derby participants from 2012-18 (I’m not including two participants who were injured early in the second half and had limited playing time), only eight could have what could be considered a below-average second half, meaning an OPS+ below 100 after the break. Those eight: Mark Trumbo (162-74) in 2012, Carlos Gonzalez (180-99) in 2012, Pedro Alvarez (127-95) in 2013, Albert Pujols (137-91) in 2015, Joc Pederson (139-71) in 2015, Todd Frazier (155-80) in 2015, Wil Myers (133-91) in 2016 and Miguel Sano in 2017 (140-97). And we've already talked about Pederson.

Among those players who have improved after the Home Run Derby: Corey Seager, who had an OPS+ of 135 before the 2016 break and 138 after.

Only one player has gone into the derby with an OPS+ of below 100, Yoenis Cespedes (97) in 2013. After the break his OPS+ was 114.

Max Muncy took part in last year’s home run derby. He had an OPS+ of 177 in the first half and 149 in the second half. A normal regression where he still remained well above average.

Some players get worse after the break, some get better, and some stay the same. But now we have something to peg it to. Something we can blame it on. Because it is human nature to want to find something to blame. But we've picked the wrong thing.
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"The Dodgers have always occupied an enormous place in the history of the game. If the Yankees are the most successful team in baseball history, the Dodgers are the most essential. Their legacy is unique."

-Baseball Hall of Fame
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